本文關(guān)鍵詞：進(jìn)口波動視角下中國棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全研究　出處：《安徽財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 棉花供需 進(jìn)口波動 棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全 層次分析法

【摘要】：棉花是我國種植業(yè)中僅次于糧食的重要大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。改革開放以來,中國棉花的生產(chǎn)出現(xiàn)較大的波動,供不應(yīng)求或供過于求的市場狀況反復(fù)出現(xiàn),政府也出臺了一系列政策來改善棉花流通體制。加入WTO以后,隨著國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展,紡織工業(yè)的棉花需求量大幅度增加,進(jìn)一步擴大了棉花的進(jìn)口。特別是近些年,棉花大幅度進(jìn)口已嚴(yán)重沖擊了國內(nèi)棉花市場的發(fā)展,進(jìn)口棉花的波動已成為影響中國棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的重要因素。 針對棉花進(jìn)口波動問題,文章首先分析了國內(nèi)棉花供需狀況,國內(nèi)棉花的供不應(yīng)求是造成棉花大幅度進(jìn)口的重要原因。且通過對未來中國棉花供需的預(yù)測分析得出,十年后中國棉花的供需缺口依舊存在并且有擴大的趨勢。然后從理論上分析了進(jìn)口波動對中國棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的影響。 針對中國棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全問題的研究,文章首先借鑒相關(guān)學(xué)者的研究從國內(nèi)和國際兩方面選取指標(biāo)構(gòu)建棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全指標(biāo)體系。然后,將進(jìn)口波動和棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的內(nèi)容結(jié)合起來,采用層次分析法求得各指標(biāo)相對于總目標(biāo)的權(quán)重。最后,經(jīng)過加權(quán)求和得出1995-2012年中國棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全狀態(tài)得分。 從結(jié)果數(shù)據(jù)分析表明,中國棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全總體上安全狀態(tài)分?jǐn)?shù)較低,多數(shù)年份處在基本安全狀態(tài),若干年份還出現(xiàn)了不安全的狀態(tài)。其中,產(chǎn)業(yè)國際競爭力和產(chǎn)業(yè)控制力的指標(biāo)分?jǐn)?shù)值呈下降趨勢,產(chǎn)業(yè)生存環(huán)境也沒有改善。特別是產(chǎn)業(yè)國際競爭力,其分?jǐn)?shù)值均值最低,處于不安全狀態(tài),直接惡化了棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)安全狀態(tài)。
[Abstract]:Cotton is one of the most important agricultural products in China next to grain. Since the reform and opening up, the production of cotton in China has fluctuated greatly, and the market situation that supply exceeds supply or oversupply has repeatedly appeared. The government has also issued a series of policies to improve the cotton circulation system. With the rapid development of domestic economy after China's entry into WTO, the demand for cotton in textile industry has increased by a large margin. In recent years, the large import of cotton has seriously impacted the development of domestic cotton market, and the fluctuation of imported cotton has become an important factor affecting the safety of China's cotton industry. In view of the fluctuation of cotton import, the article first analyzes the domestic cotton supply and demand situation. The shortage of domestic cotton supply is an important reason for the large import of cotton, and through the prediction and analysis of cotton supply and demand in the future in China. After ten years, the gap between supply and demand of cotton in China still exists and has a tendency to expand. Then, the influence of import fluctuation on the safety of Chinese cotton industry is analyzed theoretically. Aiming at the research of cotton industry safety in China, this paper first draws lessons from the research of relevant scholars to construct the cotton industry safety index system from both domestic and international aspects. The import fluctuation and the content of cotton industry safety are combined and the weight of each index relative to the total target is obtained by AHP. Finally. After weighted summation, China's cotton industry security state score between 1995 and 2012. The analysis of the result data shows that the overall safety state score of China's cotton industry is relatively low, most of the years are in a basic state of safety, and some years are still unsafe. The index value of industrial international competitiveness and industrial control is declining, and the living environment of industry has not been improved. Especially, the industrial international competitiveness has the lowest mean value and is in unsafe state. Direct deterioration of the cotton industry security state.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F326.12;F752.61

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