【摘要】：中俄是全面戰(zhàn)略協(xié)作伙伴關系,近二十年時間里,中俄兩國始終保持著高度友好的政治關系,對中俄兩國人民和世界和平都做出了巨大貢獻。然而,與兩國高度友好的政治關系相比,中俄經濟合作卻不盡如人意。雖然,兩國間經貿合作在持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的增長,但是“政熱經溫”仍是中俄經濟合作的主要特征,中俄貿易額相比中國與其他世界大國相距甚遠,兩國間的投資額也相當有限。如何在高度友好的政治關系的基礎上促進兩國經貿合作,是中俄學術界始終關注和探討的重要問題。2013年因烏克蘭危機引發(fā)了以美國為首的西方國家對俄羅斯的經濟制裁與俄羅斯的反制裁,給俄羅斯經濟帶來嚴重沖擊,也對俄羅斯的國際經濟關系產生連帶影響。那么,這對中俄經貿合作產生怎樣的影響,它帶來是機遇還是挑戰(zhàn)?本文采用實證分析方法,對西方經濟制裁后中俄經貿關系發(fā)生的變化,包括規(guī)模與結構兩個方面,進行實證分析,從中得出西方經濟制裁對中俄經貿合作的影響的現(xiàn)實結論,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響中俄經貿合作的深層次問題,以此推動中俄經貿合作健康向前發(fā)展。本文內容除了緒論之外包括四個部分。第一部分是對西方對俄羅斯經濟制裁的內容、方式的綜合分析,并將此次經濟制裁與以往經濟制裁進行比較。第二部分是對中俄貿易的規(guī)模與結構進行描述性分析,從而給出西方經濟制裁之前中俄經貿的整體面貌以及西方經濟制裁后發(fā)生的改變。第三部分是通過實證分析觀察西方經濟制裁與中俄經貿合作之間的關聯(lián)性。第四部分是在第二和第三部分研究結論的基礎上對中俄經貿合作提出建議。最后,本文給出一些研究結論與啟示。通過實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn),在西方經濟制裁后,中俄貿易結構中工業(yè)制成品所占的比重在增加,尤其是資本技術密集型產品比重增加較為明顯。通過貿易結合度指數(shù)與貿易互補性指數(shù)對中俄貿易進一步分析,得出中俄貿易結合度越來越緊密,中國對俄羅斯的貿易結合度較高但有所下降,而俄羅斯對中國的貿易結合度在不斷上升。中俄貿易在工業(yè)制成品、機械設備運輸品、雜項制品方面具有較強的互補性,這也為中俄貿易關系的加強奠定了基礎。西方經濟制裁對俄羅斯的貿易總額、出口產生了顯著的負面影響,對俄進口影響并不顯著。中俄雙方貿易為“潛力開拓型”,雙邊貿易仍然具有很大的發(fā)展空間。最后,本文主要從改善中俄貿易制度與優(yōu)化中俄貿易結構兩方面對中俄貿易提出對策建議,以期能夠推動中俄貿易的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Over the past two decades, China and Russia have maintained highly friendly political relations and made great contributions to the peoples of China and Russia and to world peace. However, compared with the highly friendly political relations between the two countries, economic cooperation between China and Russia is far from satisfactory. Although the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries is growing steadily and steadily, the "political hot economy" is still the main characteristic of Sino-Russian economic cooperation. The Sino-Russian trade volume is far from that of other major countries in the world, and the investment between the two countries is quite limited. How to promote economic and trade cooperation between the two countries on the basis of highly friendly political relations, It is an important issue that has always been concerned and discussed by the Chinese and Russian academic circles. In 2013, because of the crisis in Ukraine, the United States-led Western countries imposed economic sanctions on Russia and Russia's anti-sanctions, which had a serious impact on the Russian economy. It also has a knock-on effect on Russia's international economic relations. So, how does this affect Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation? is it an opportunity or a challenge? This paper uses the empirical analysis method to analyze the changes in Sino-Russian economic and trade relations after the western economic sanctions, including the two aspects of scale and structure, and draws the realistic conclusion of the influence of the western economic sanctions on the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. To find out the deep problems that affect the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, so as to promote the healthy development of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. In addition to the introduction, the content of this paper includes four parts. The first part is a comprehensive analysis of the contents and methods of the western economic sanctions against Russia, and compares the economic sanctions with the previous ones. The second part is a descriptive analysis of the scale and structure of Sino-Russian trade, so as to give the overall appearance of Sino-Russian trade before the western economic sanctions and the changes that have taken place after the western economic sanctions. The third part is the empirical analysis of the relationship between Western economic sanctions and Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. The fourth part is based on the conclusions of the second and third parts of the study on Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation. Finally, some conclusions and revelations are given. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the proportion of manufactured goods in Sino-Russian trade structure is increasing after western economic sanctions, especially the proportion of capital-technology-intensive products. Through the further analysis of Sino-Russian trade by trade combination index and trade complementarity index, it is concluded that Sino-Russian trade integration is getting closer and closer, and China's trade integration with Russia is higher but lower. Russia's trade with China is on the rise. Sino-Russian trade is highly complementary in industrial manufactured goods, machinery and equipment, and miscellaneous products, which has laid the foundation for the strengthening of Sino-Russian trade relations. Western economic sanctions have a significant negative impact on Russia's total trade volume and exports, but not on Russia's imports. Trade between China and Russia is a potential-developing type, and bilateral trade still has a lot of room for development. Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on Sino-Russian trade from the aspects of improving Sino-Russian trade system and optimizing Sino-Russian trade structure, in order to promote the sustainable development of Sino-Russian trade.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752;F755.12

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