本文選題：“一帶一路”　切入點(diǎn)：石油生產(chǎn)　出處：《資源科學(xué)》2017年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：隨著國(guó)家"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略的推進(jìn),中國(guó)與沿線國(guó)家的貿(mào)易往來(lái)日益緊密,石油資源作為重要的戰(zhàn)略能源在區(qū)域合作中尤為重要。基于互惠互利原則,本文對(duì)沿線產(chǎn)油國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與石油生產(chǎn)和石油貿(mào)易的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了定量分析,目的是揭示各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與石油供需之間的作用機(jī)理,尋求兼顧中國(guó)與沿線各國(guó)石油資源貿(mào)易的合作策略。本研究整理了2000-2015年"一帶一路"沿線產(chǎn)油國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、石油產(chǎn)量和石油貿(mào)易量數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)法、VAR模型和脈沖響應(yīng)分析,對(duì)"一帶一路"沿線21個(gè)產(chǎn)油國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、石油生產(chǎn)、石油貿(mào)易三者間的動(dòng)態(tài)趨同關(guān)系進(jìn)行評(píng)估。結(jié)果表明,三個(gè)變量間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系存在三種明顯不同的模式,即循環(huán)因果關(guān)系(三種變量之間存在顯著的接替性循環(huán)變化)、互為因果關(guān)系(兩種變量之間存在一種或兩種顯著的雙向交替變化)和單向因果關(guān)系(兩種變量之間僅存在一種顯著的先后變化)。結(jié)合中國(guó)國(guó)情和模型檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果,本文提出了差異化的中國(guó)石油貿(mào)易合作策略,即:采用石油貿(mào)易合作,人才、技術(shù)資源輸出等方式,推動(dòng)中國(guó)與"一帶一路"沿線產(chǎn)油國(guó)的石油資源貿(mào)易;重點(diǎn)加強(qiáng)中國(guó)-中亞-西亞經(jīng)濟(jì)帶和新亞歐經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的建設(shè),并制定優(yōu)先合作策略,有利于緩解中國(guó)石油供給安全壓力,確保"一帶一路"倡議的順利實(shí)施。
[Abstract]:With the promotion of China's "Belt and Road" strategy, China's trade relations with countries along the route have become increasingly close. Oil resources, as an important strategic energy source, are particularly important in regional cooperation. Based on the principle of mutual benefit, This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between economic growth, oil production and oil trade in oil-producing countries along the route. The purpose of this paper is to reveal the mechanism between economic growth and oil supply and demand in various countries. This study collates the data of economic growth, oil production and oil trade volume of oil producing countries along Belt and Road from 2000 to 2015. By using Granger causality test method and impulse response analysis, the dynamic convergence relationship among 21 oil-producing countries along "Belt and Road", including economic growth, oil production and oil trade, is evaluated. There are three distinct patterns of dynamic relationships between the three variables. That is, cyclic causality (there are significant successive cyclic changes between the three variables, mutual causality (there is one or two significant bidirectional alternation between the two variables) and unidirectional causality (between the two variables). There is only one significant sequence of changes. Combined with China's national conditions and the results of model testing, This paper puts forward the differential strategy of China's petroleum trade cooperation, that is, to promote the oil resource trade between China and the oil-producing countries along "Belt and Road" by means of petroleum trade cooperation, talent and technical resource export. Strengthening the construction of China-Central Asia West Asia economic belt and the new Asia-Europe economic belt and formulating the priority cooperation strategy will help to alleviate the pressure on China's oil supply security and ensure the smooth implementation of Belt and Road's initiative.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所;中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué);
【基金】：科技部國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃“全球變化及應(yīng)對(duì)”專項(xiàng)(2016YFA0602802) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(71633006)
【分類號(hào)】：F113;F416.22;F742

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