本文選題：虛張聲勢(shì)　切入點(diǎn)：核威懾　出處：《外交評(píng)論(外交學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào))》2017年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：在核時(shí)代的國際政治中,虛張聲勢(shì)是一種比較常見的威懾行為,它旨在通過夸大自我實(shí)力和意圖、釋放虛假信號(hào)和推行不透明政策,以及不經(jīng)意間越過政策紅線的邊緣政策,迫使對(duì)手放棄攻擊意圖,以維護(hù)自身國家安全。一個(gè)剛跨過核門檻的國家往往傾向于利用虛張聲勢(shì)行為威懾?cái)硨?duì)核大國,以防止敵對(duì)核大國在其尚未獲得可信核威懾時(shí)發(fā)動(dòng)先發(fā)制人打擊,并最終促使敵對(duì)核大國承認(rèn)其核國家地位。剛跨過核門檻的國家作為較弱一方,其虛張聲勢(shì)行為受到技術(shù)進(jìn)步、政體安全和聯(lián)盟凝聚力三個(gè)因素的重要影響。從戰(zhàn)略效用來看,虛張聲勢(shì)行為不僅可以幫助剛跨過核門檻的國家隱藏弱點(diǎn),有利于其度過危險(xiǎn)的過渡期,也可以作為展示決心的重要途徑,進(jìn)而增加敵對(duì)核大國的戰(zhàn)略成本。以朝鮮在第四次核試驗(yàn)后的虛張聲勢(shì)行為為例,本文還進(jìn)一步分析了剛跨過核門檻國家虛張聲勢(shì)行為的內(nèi)在機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:In the international politics of the nuclear age, bravado is a more common act of deterrence, designed to unleash false signals and policies of opacity, as well as policies that inadvertently cross the red line of policies, by exaggerating their own power and intentions. A country that has just crossed the nuclear threshold tends to use bluff to deter hostile nuclear powers. In order to prevent hostile nuclear Powers from launching pre-emptive strikes when they have not yet received credible nuclear deterrence and, ultimately, to induce hostile nuclear Powers to recognize their nuclear statehood... States that have just passed the nuclear threshold are the weaker parties, Its bravado is greatly influenced by technological advances, regime security and alliance cohesion. From a strategic point of view, bluffing can not only help countries that have just crossed the nuclear threshold hide their weaknesses, It can also serve as an important way to show determination and thus increase the strategic costs of hostile nuclear powers. Take North Korea's bravado after the 4th nuclear test as an example. The internal mechanism of bluff behavior in countries that have just crossed the nuclear threshold is also analyzed.
【作者單位】： 中國人民大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：D815.2

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