【摘要】：漓江流域上游是廣西山洪災(zāi)害多發(fā)區(qū)中較嚴(yán)重的流域之一,為了對漓江流域上游防洪減災(zāi)提供技術(shù)上的支持,根據(jù)漓江流域上游的水文資料、地形地貌及氣候特征,構(gòu)建漓江流域上游三水源新安江模型洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案。選取2008~2013年的27場洪水作為率定期洪水,2014~2015年8場洪水作為驗(yàn)證期洪水進(jìn)行降雨徑流模擬。模擬計(jì)算結(jié)果表明:率定期模擬合格率為85.2%,平均確定性系數(shù)為0.850;驗(yàn)證期合格率為87.5%,達(dá)到甲級精度,平均確定性系數(shù)為0.87,達(dá)到乙級精度。模擬結(jié)果的分析表明,三水源新安江模型適用于漓江流域上游且取得較好的模擬結(jié)果,可為漓江流域上游洪水作業(yè)預(yù)報(bào)提供參考。
[Abstract]:The upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin is one of the most serious basins in the mountainous flood disaster-prone areas of Guangxi. In order to provide technical support for flood control and disaster reduction in the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin, according to the hydrological data, topography, geomorphology and climate characteristics of the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin, The flood forecasting scheme of Xinanjiang River model with three water sources in the upper reaches of Lijiang River Basin is constructed. 27 floods from 2008 to 2013 were selected as regular floods, and 8 floods from 2014 to 2015 were selected as verification period floods to simulate rainfall and runoff. The simulation results show that the qualified rate of periodic simulation is 85.2%, the average deterministic coefficient is 0.850, and the qualified rate of verification period is 8.5%, which reaches the accuracy of Grade A, and the average deterministic coefficient is 0.87, which reaches the accuracy of Grade B. The analysis of the simulation results shows that the three water source Xin'an River model is suitable for the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin and obtains good simulation results, which can provide a reference for the flood operation forecast in the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin.
【作者單位】： 廣西大學(xué)土木建筑工程學(xué)院;廣西防災(zāi)減災(zāi)與工程安全重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;廣西南寧水利電力設(shè)計(jì)院;廣西南寧禹道水利科技有限公司;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(51469002，51009029) 廣西自然科學(xué)基金(2015GXNSFBA139218) 廣西科學(xué)研究與技術(shù)開發(fā)計(jì)劃(桂科攻1298005-6) 廣西重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室系統(tǒng)性研究項(xiàng)目(2014ZDX012)
【分類號】：P338

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2 ;[J];;年期

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